Pokémon TCG Paldean Fates Set Guide: Shiny Cards, Mew ex and Prices

Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Paldean Fates released on January 26, 2024 with 245 cards: 91 main set plus 154 secrets numbered 092 to 245, every one printed over a denominator of 091. It is the shiny set — 132 of those secrets are Shiny Rares or Shiny Ultra Rares, and both shiny tiers share one pack slot, which is why roughly one pack in three contains a shiny. It also has no booster box, and its packs were never sold loose. Below: the measured pull rates, the rarity structure, Mew ex 232/091, and every product with MSRPs and live CAD prices.

Two hit slots, and why a third of packs contain a shiny

No published odds from The Pokémon Company could be located for Paldean Fates, in any region. What exists is a measurement: TCGplayer's Authentication Center physically opened more than 1,500 packs and published observed rates with 95% confidence intervals on January 26, 2024. Observed frequencies from real openings, not official odds.

The slot column is what makes this set behave unlike a normal expansion. Shiny Rares and Shiny Ultra Rares both come from the first Reverse Holo slot, so their rates are mutually exclusive and add: 25.44% plus 7.72% is 33.16% of packs carrying a shiny, roughly one in three. Illustration, Special Illustration and Hyper Rares come from the second, so one pack can produce both. That is why the set reads as generous despite a thin top end.

The 154 secrets, and the 120 that are Shiny Rares

The secrets run in six contiguous blocks: Shiny Rare 092 to 211 (120 cards), Shiny Ultra Rare 212 to 223 (12), Illustration Rare 224 to 226 (3), Ultra Rare 227 to 231 (5), Special Illustration Rare 232 to 239 (8) and gold Hyper Rare 240 to 245 (6). The main set is 41 Commons, 24 Uncommons, 16 Rares and 10 Double Rares. Bulbapedia's prose says 11 Shiny Pokémon ex; its own card list and Limitless both give 12, and 12 is correct. One card-level disagreement survives, worth recording rather than resolving: Kirlia 028/091 is Common on Bulbapedia, Uncommon on Limitless.

So a collector chasing this set is chasing 120 Shiny Rares, not 8 Special Illustration Rares. Five of the twelve Shiny Ultra Rares have no main-set counterpart here — Alakazam ex 215, Mew ex 216, Glimmora ex 218, Pidgeot ex 221 and Wigglytuff ex 222 exist only as shinies — while Great Tusk ex 053, Iron Treads ex 066 and Charizard ex 054 got no Shiny Ultra Rare at all.

Name collisions are everywhere here and the number is the only thing separating them. Three Shiny Rare Paldean Tauros exist — 111, 120 and 172, all Basic with 130 HP — and the printed names do not say which breed: 111 is Fire, 120 Water, 172 Fighting. Four Paldean Student cards exist, and two Rares are both printed "Professor's Research". The expensive one: Mew ex appears at 216 and at 232, thirty-fold apart.

The cards worth naming

Filterable by rarity, tap to zoom. None of these carries "Shiny" in its printed name, so the number is the identification. SIR is Special Illustration Rare, IR Illustration Rare. Prices are TCGplayer market prices in USD observed July 25, 2026 — rolling aggregates of completed sales, not individual transactions.

All (14)Shiny Rare (6)Shiny Ultra Rare (1)Special Illustration Rare (4)Hyper Rare (2)Illustration Rare (1)

Ninety-two illustrators are credited across the 245 cards, Kouki Saitou the most prolific at ten. One concentration is worth pointing at: Arven 235, Nemona 238 and Penny 239, three of the eight Special Illustration Rares, are all by aspara and all trade under US$7.

Mew ex 232/091, and the card that gems worst

Mew ex 232/091 is the market centre of Paldean Fates and, outside Prismatic Evolutions' Umbreon ex, of the whole era. Quaza Track has it at CA$1,502.05 on July 25, 2026, the highest tracked single in the era bar that one. At US$1,065.81 on TCGplayer it is worth more than the next fifteen cards in the set combined, which sum to US$1,051.62. Its dated raw sales have a US$1,008 median and its PSA 10 sales a US$3,588 median across 30 dated rows, including a Goldin auction result of US$3,660 on July 20, 2026 — a 3.6 times raw-to-gem multiple, on 48,966 cards graded by PSA with 16,376 tens.

The more interesting card is Shiny Pikachu 131/091. Raw median US$80, PSA 10 median US$912, an 11.5 times multiple and the widest in the set. The reason is in the population table rather than the print run: its gem rate is 19.7%, roughly half the set average, against 40.6% for Charizard ex 234. At 1,283 PSA 10s it is scarce in the grade because it grades badly — scarcity of condition, not of print.

One rate this guide will not give cleanly: the odds on Mew ex 232/091 itself. Dividing the measured 1.72% rate across the eight cards in that pool gives roughly 0.22%, about 1 in 465 packs, but the confidence band nearly touches zero and the study never validated the assumption it rests on. An order of magnitude, not a number.

Every product, and there is no booster box

Quaza Track carries nine Paldean Fates sealed products, more than any Scarlet & Violet set bar Prismatic Evolutions. Full history is on the Paldean Fates tracker page.

Dates are 2024 unless stated. MSRPs are archived Pokémon Center list prices — Pokémon Center is TPCi's own store, so its list price is the MSRP — cross-checked against retailer and trade listings; none is estimated. †The tin shape split is regional, not per character: all three shipped in both shapes, and the US release was the large hexagonal 5-pack at $28.99 while the 4-pack octagonal is European. ‡ICv2 trade figure, ten mini tins at $9.99. §Single archived retailer source, so weak. *The Booster Bundle Display holds 10 bundles and 60 packs but its price is not sourced. ¶The Great Tusk ex & Iron Treads ex Premium Collection arrived roughly 22 months after the set, which is why contemporary lists omit it; the month is soft, the year is not, and its MSRP is unsourced. The $219.99 that circulates for it is an Amazon list price on a scarce item, not a TPCi figure. Target sold the Elite Trainer Box at $54.99, above MSRP, and Paradox Rift's below it, which is why retailer prices do not substitute.

Where Paldean Fates settled in a closed era

The Scarlet & Violet era closed on September 26, 2025, when Mega Evolution replaced it as the current block, and sealed products from it have re-rated upward since. Paldean Fates' Quaza set index reads 111.13, up 11.1% over three months and thirteenth of the sixteen. Over the seven days to July 25, 2026 it moved +0.1% against an era-wide −0.90%, one of only four sets that finished the week up. The index covers sealed products only; raw singles went the other way.

With no 36-pack display in the line, the Elite Trainer Box does the job a booster box does elsewhere, and it is priced accordingly. At CA$673.90 it is the second-most-expensive standard Elite Trainer Box in the era behind only 151 at CA$871.93, ahead of every main-series set: Obsidian Flames CA$449.07, Paldea Evolved CA$334.22, Paradox Rift CA$217.16. The Pokémon Center version is CA$867.93, and the Booster Bundle Display at CA$2,269.27 is the era's third-highest behind 151 at CA$2,982.60 and Prismatic Evolutions at CA$2,302.50.

Against sticker those numbers are stark. The Elite Trainer Box listed at US$49.99 and PriceCharting's July 2026 computed value is US$420.75, 8.4 times MSRP; the Pokémon Center box listed at US$59.99 and computes to US$600.00, ten times; the Booster Bundle listed at US$26.94 and computes to US$163.92. Measured instead from each product's own trough, the Elite Trainer Box has run 11.4 times, second in the era only to 151 at 14.6 and 2.4 times harder than Paradox Rift's 4.8. The obvious conclusion does not follow: Shrouded Fable, the next special set, managed 4.4 times, below two main-series sets. The pattern is 151 and Paldean Fates specifically, not special sets as a class.

On grading, GemRate's July 25, 2026 read puts the set at 207,850 cards graded by PSA with 83,262 tens, a 40.06% gem rate — fourth of 1,595 TCG sets labelled 2024 and the second-highest-volume English expansion of that year behind Surging Sparks.

On format, Paldean Fates is Regulation Mark G, and it is the set that gets left off the rotated list: it released in January 2024 but carries the same mark as the 2023 sets, so it went with them. The 2026-27 rotation, announced January 9, 2026, dropped mark G on Pokémon TCG Live on March 26 and at sanctioned tournaments on April 10, taking six sets — Scarlet & Violet base, Paldea Evolved, Obsidian Flames, 151, Paradox Rift and Paldean Fates. Marks H, I, J and later stay legal, every card here is still legal in Expanded, and rotation says nothing about manufacturing.

Release timeline

• Dec 1, 2023Japanese High Class Pack Shiny Treasure ex releases with 360 cards, then the largest Japanese set ever printed.
• Jan 26, 2024Paldean Fates releases in English with 245 cards: the $49.99 Elite Trainer Box, the $59.99 Pokémon Center version, three Tech Sticker Collections and both portfolios.
• Feb 9, 2024Wave two: three Premium Collections at $49.99, three tins at $28.99, five Mini Tins at $9.99.
• Feb 23, 2024Wave three: the Booster Bundle at $26.94, last of the original line-up.
• Mar 22, 2024Temporal Forces releases, ending the set's run as the newest.
• Dec 2025The Great Tusk ex & Iron Treads ex Premium Collection arrives with 11 packs, roughly 22 months late.
• Apr 10, 2026Regulation Mark G rotates out of sanctioned play, the set's last day of Standard legality.
• Jul 25, 2026Quaza Track: Booster Bundle Display CA$2,269.27, ETB CA$673.90, index 111.13.

Either side of it: Paradox Rift, whose unlocalised Ancient Roar and Future Flash cards ended up here — Paldean Fates carries exactly one Ancient and one Future card, Great Tusk ex 053/091 and Iron Treads ex 066/091, and Iron Treads ex's attack discards Future Booster Energy Capsule, which exists only as Paradox Rift 164/182 — and Temporal Forces, which took over in March 2024. Live prices for all sixteen sets are on the Quaza Track price tracker.

Frequently asked questions